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There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.

On one level, this is likely due to the fact that poker”like sports gambling”is a pursuit in which the knowledgeable and skillful practitioner can overcome the theoretical odds against him. To paraphrase the great poker theoretician Bob Caro, there are some professional blackjack players and sports gamblers in addition to professional poker players. There may even be a few professional horse players (though the house edge against the horse player is a hefty 17% or so). In the entire world, however, there is not one professional roulette player.

The simple fact is that the house edge in roulette cannot be overcome by any combination of skill, experience and/or discipline. When you win, it is because you get lucky. When you lose, its because you didnt get lucky. To add another Caro concept to the equation, the decisions that the player makes when playing roulette simply dont matter”at least in terms of overcoming the theoretical edge enjoyed by the house. In the long term, it doesnt matter whether you choose red or black, odd or even, or certain numbers. You may get lucky with your choices or you may not, but these decisions do not impact the house edge one iota.

Caro argues that one of the poker players most valuable weapons is discipline at the table. The reason for this is that the average person goes into a casino for precisely the opposite reason”he wants to have some downtime away from the discipline and order that circumscribes the rest of his life. He wants to down a few cocktails, leer at some cocktail waitresses, and throw some money around for awhile. Hes not worried about theoretical return on investment, pot odds or other concepts of serious play. Casinos exist for the sole reason of providing him all of the escapism he wants while they slowly use their house advantage to make a profit off of him. Granted, poker operates differently in terms of the house advantage but the motivation that drives the recreational gambler to the poker table is no different than that which drives him to the slot machines or blackjack layout.

Caro’s emphasis on discipline in poker is also true for the serious sports gambler. The foundation of a professional sports bettor’s long term success is to approach it with the same discipline, rigor and professionalism that he would any other job. If you continue to think about it in the same terms as the recreational gambler does, you’re in for a difficult road. The more seriousness that you bring to your sports betting, the higher the likelihood that you’ll be successful.

Now, I have no problem with recreational sports gamblers”or any other recreational gamblers for that matter. Recreational sports gamblers are, in fact, crucial to the survival of those of us who do this for a living. Theyre not our prey”like they are for the poker professional”but a thriving recreational sports gambling industry keeps the sportsbooks in business, and what I do is utterly useless if my book doesnt pay me.

If you want to bet recreationally, thats fine and unless you have the dedication and discipline to do it right its probably better for most people. You might be able to win more often and lose less frequently with some enhanced discipline. Ultimately, however, as a recreational gambler the only discipline you really need to know is the same as for other casino games or any hobby”just dont bet more than you can afford to lose. After that, youre on your own.

Ross Everett is a staff sports handicapper for Anatta Sports and is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a variety of websites and broadcast media outlets. He is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, clogging and falconry. He lives in Las Vegas with three dogs and a wombat.

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